Who will win Mud Mountain XV? And how many will run? A race director's bold predictions.

by Tom Atwood
Race Director, Mud Mountain 5K

I'm listening to the thunder as I write this. It's storming again. This Summer of 2010 will be remembered for its big clouds (see my photo at left from last week), big storms, and big heat. What does that have to do with who will win Mud Mountain XV Saturday? Maybe nothing, but I think it has had an effect on how many will run the 15th Annual Cross Country Classic.

For weeks now the race entries have been running ahead of last year's record pace, when 684 runners signed up for Mud Mountain 2009 and the One Mile Fun Run, the highest total ever. But in the last few days, the gap has been narrowing, and by race day, I predict we will have a slightly smaller turnout than in 2009. My exact prediction: 663. I think the extended period of hot weather during the past few weeks has discouraged many runners, has even kept some from training for Mud Mountain. And I am afraid that on Saturday, when runners who are "on the fence" wake up to another steamy summer morning, too many of them will crank up the air conditioner and go back to bed!

(By the way, look at the Countdown Poll in the right hand column and you'll see that more people chose 650-700 than any other option. Last year I predicted that 678 runners would sign up; the final total was 684.)

Now for the winners. This is where it gets really tricky. Last year I picked a dark horse, Jo Jo Johannigmeier, to win Mud Mountain XIV. But shortly before the race, Jo Jo suffered an injury related to orthotics he was wearing, and two runners from O'Fallon finished first and second. This summer, whenever I see Jo Jo and ask him how he's doing and if he can win the race, he looks at me like I am the devil. Or like I'm crazy. And so, I pick Jo Jo again to win this year. Although Dustin Davis, Garrett Sweatt or other runners I don't even know about could end up winning.

In the women's division I picture Candace Caveny, the O'Fallon cross country coach holding hands across the finish line with Ariane Wright, the sophomore from Edwardsville High School who beat Candace last year and grabbed the 1st place plaque. A dead heat. Or maybe Ariane will break 20 minutes (her goal) and win two in a row? And maybe I'll be wrong about the attendance and we'll set a new record this year?